So Much for Democracy

Republican committees in several states, including:

• Arizona
• Kansas
• Nevada
• South Carolina

have announced they intend to cancel caucuses and primaries in 2020.  Reports suggest this step, already taken by South Carolina, hopes to facilitate Donald Trump's path to renomination.

IMHO it also hopes to help him avoid the embarrassment of being challenged for the Republican nomination from both the left (e.g., former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld) and from the far right (former one-term Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh).

Our Republicans Could Learn From Britain's Tories

Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since July 23rd of this year.  On September 3rd, he lost the support and leadership of the Tory (Conservative) Party.  Under Britain's system of government, that means Johnson also lost the office of Prime Minister.

That role, under the UK's parliamentary system, automatically devolves to the head of the party holding a majority in the House of Commons.  So, Mr. Johnson was the across-the-pond analog to Donald Trump for only 41 days.

As journalist Mehdi Hasan points out,  Donald Trump's and Boris Johnson's governance share quite a few characteristics.

• Both men gained power in part by demonizing immigrants
• Both men are Islamophobes
• Neither came to office with majority support from the electorate
• Each has disregarded governmental conventions and norms
• Each has a history of pathological lying
• Each has a long history of marital infidelity
• Each is a member of the 1% who likes to present himself as a populist and friend of workers

Unfortunately, I have o agree with Hasan that, unlike the Tories who openly opposed Johnson, Republican members of both chambers of our Congress have been shamefully complicit in Trump’s lack of respect for democratic (note the lower case) norms.

Another 12 Seats?

It's reported that at least 12 Republican members of the House of Representatives have chosen not to stand for re-election.

Join me in a hearty Wahoo!

Putting It on Trump's Tab

In the 975 days since his inauguration, Donald Trump has spent 295 days at a Trump property.  If one assumes an estimated $100K in profit for the Trump Organization charged to the American taxpayer (for such things as meals and housing for FBI and Secret Service), that adds up to $29,500,000.00 - almost thirty million dollars.

But wait - there's more.  While acting as understudy to Mr. Trump this past weekend on a trip to Ireland, Mike Pence, at Donald Trump's suggestion, requested a change of accomodation.  Rather than stay at the location that had been arranged for him, near the site of the talks in which he was to take part, Pence chose instead to stay at a Donald Trump property, about 180 miles from the site of the meeting.  Which will cost the taxpayer further IMHO completely unnecessary expense, not only for the digs at Doonbeg, but also for the flight back and forth from there to Dublin, the site of the meetings.  (Doonbeg is on the extreme western coast of Ireland; Pence's official business was in Dublin, in eastern Ireland.  To get to the latter from the former requires either an hour's  car trip or a 40-minute flight.   Here's the route:. )

Thanks to Messrs. Trump and  Pence, we can add beaucoup bucks to what we're footing the bill for.  Let's hope that Rep. Elijah Cummings, chair of the House Oversight committee, finds a way to pursue violations by the Trump Administration of the Domestic Emoluments Clause ; That is not a political maneuver by Democrats, as Mr. Pence stated today.  The clause originated in 1788 with Alexander Hamilton and Federalist 73.

Labor Day

Today being Labor Day, I thought it important to reiterate the reason for this blog.

15104 was and is intended to demonstrate that one can be working-class and still be progressive, and that progressive policies and positions benefit workers.

Whatever you do to make a living, remember the dignity of your work.

In 2020, 278

In 2016, Donald Trump won the Presidency with 304 electoral voters (but three million fewer popular votes).  In 2020, Dr. Rachel Bitecofer  anticipates that. whomever the Democratic nominee is, that challenger will garner at least 278 electoral votes.

Dr. Bitecofer cites four major influences shaping her prediction:

• overconfidence on the part of some voters
• hunger on the part of some
• the presence or lack thereof of a viable, effective third-party candidate
• turnout in general

Turnout is itself shaped by voter attitudes.  In 2016, many polls gave Hillary Clinton such a large lead that many Democratic voters simply didn't bother going to the polls - a prime example of overconfidence.  Similarly, in that same election, large numbers of working-class, male-over-50, white, no-higher-education voters, still wanting to reclaim "their country" from the likes of Barack Obama, were so hungry to go forward to the past that they elected Donald Trump.  Finally, according to the FEC, the Green Party's Dr. Jill Stein won 7 electoral votes in 2016 - not enough to flip the election to Hillary Clinton, but enough to add to Mr. Trump's belief in his own inevitability.

Bitecofer's predictions for the 2018 midterms were eerily prescient.    Let's hope she's as sapient in her view of 2020 - that Donald Trump will be out of the Oval Office, gaining at best 260 electoral votes.