From Publius

For those of you who aren't political junkies, Publius:

• was the pen name under which Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, and James Madison wrote and published the Federalist Papers
• is the pen name under which one of 15104's guest bloggers publishes for us

Here's our Publius' most recent contribution, having to do with the ability to rebut what may be one of Donald Trump's most-used campaign arguments: that he's done wonders for our economy.

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The Trump vs. Obama economy

(Original source:

Heather Long  at the Washington Post)

Is a recession coming in 2020 or 2021? Experts continue to debate the conflicting signals, but an equally telling question might be: How does the “Trump economy” compare to Barack Obama’s?

President Trump constantly refers to the economy with descriptors such as “strong,” “terrific” and the “greatest in the history of our country,” but a closer look at the data shows a mixed picture in terms of whether the economy is any better than it was in Obama’s final years.

The economy is growing at about the same pace as it did in Obama’s last years, and unemployment, while lower under Trump, has continued a trend that began in 2011.

The best case Trump can make for improvement since he took office is higher wages. The typical American worker’s pay is finally growing more than 3 percent a year, a level not seen since before the Great Recession. Similarly, consumer and business confidence surged after Trump’s election and has remained high, and manufacturing output (and jobs) also saw a noticeable jump in 2018 after Trump’s tax cut, although manufacturing is now struggling. There’s also been a drop in the number of Americans on food stamps.

But in other areas, Trump’s record does not look as rosy. Government debt and the trade deficit are climbing (while most economists don’t worry about the rising trade deficit, Trump made it a central part of his 2016 election campaign), and business investment is faltering as corporate leaders say they are wary of Trump’s trade war. The number of Americans lacking health insurance is also ticking up slightly.

Tariffs could cost U.S. families up to $1,000 a year, JPMorgan forecasts. 

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That summarizes what Publius forwarded to me.  But some of our brothers and sisters need to see more clearly.  How's this for motivation?  Historically, incumbent Presidents who campaign on a healthy economy have been re-elected.

I shudder at the thought ...